
Sudan — Expert Briefing
Sudan at a glance: A vast, resource-endowed nation at the crossroads of North and sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan is experiencing one of the world’s most severe humanitarian catastrophes following the outbreak of civil war in April 2023, with consequences that will shape the region for a generation.
Overview
Sudan’s nominal capital is Khartoum, though effective governmental functions have been severely disrupted since fighting engulfed the city in April 2023; Port Sudan, on the Red Sea coast, has emerged as the de facto administrative centre for the internationally recognised government. The United Nations Population Fund estimates Sudan’s population at approximately 48 million people, though displacement on a massive scale has rendered precise figures unreliable. Arabic and English are the official languages under the 2019 Constitutional Declaration framework, with Arabic dominant in daily life. The currency is the Sudanese pound (SDG), which has suffered extreme depreciation and parallel-market fragmentation. GDP per capita is estimated in the low-income band, below USD 800, placing Sudan among the world’s poorest economies even before accounting for wartime contraction. Sudan matters in 2026 for two interconnected reasons: it is the site of the largest displacement crisis on earth, with over 11 million people internally displaced and more than 2 million refugees having fled to neighbouring Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Sudan; and its strategic position — bordering seven countries, commanding Red Sea access, and sitting astride Nile water politics — means its instability radiates across an already fragile region.
Government and Politics
Sudan’s formal constitutional status remains deeply contested. The country was transitioning toward a civilian-led federal republic following the October 2021 military coup, which itself reversed the democratic opening that followed the ousting of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. The 2019 Constitutional Declaration, which established a Sovereignty Council to oversee a transitional period leading to elections, was effectively suspended by the 2021 coup led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Since April 2023, Sudan has been in a state of active civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by al-Burhan as de facto head of state, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary organisation led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. There is no functioning legislature: the Transitional Sovereignty Council and the cabinet appointed under the Framework Agreement process — a civilian-military deal brokered in late 2022 — were never fully operationalised before war broke out. Al-Burhan governs through military decree from Port Sudan, while the RSF controls large swathes of Darfur, Kordofan and parts of Khartoum state, and has declared a parallel governing structure. No credible election timeline exists. The African Union suspended Sudan’s membership following the 2021 coup, and that suspension remains in effect. International recognition of al-Burhan’s SAF-aligned government is widespread but increasingly strained by the military’s conduct and its inability to provide basic services to the population.
Economy
Sudan’s GDP contracted sharply following the outbreak of war, with the World Bank estimating a contraction of roughly 12 percent in 2023 alone, compounding years of economic mismanagement and the loss of approximately three-quarters of oil revenues when South Sudan seceded in 2011. Pre-war GDP stood at around USD 35–40 billion; wartime figures are projections rather than reliable measurements. Agriculture remains the backbone of the formal economy, employing the majority of the rural population and producing sorghum, millet, groundnuts, sesame and gum arabic — Sudan is the world’s largest producer of gum arabic, a commodity used in food processing and pharmaceuticals. Gold is the dominant export earner, with artisanal and semi-industrial mining operations continuing in some areas despite the conflict, though significant quantities are smuggled through the UAE and other channels, depriving the state of revenue. The Sudanese pound has collapsed in value; the parallel market rate diverges dramatically from any official rate, and dollar liquidity is concentrated in Port Sudan and among diaspora remittance networks. Sudan’s external debt burden was already among the heaviest in Africa relative to GDP before the war, and the conflict has made debt relief negotiations — which had been progressing under the HIPC framework — effectively impossible to advance. The single most consequential economic story of the past 24 months is the near-total destruction of Khartoum’s commercial and banking infrastructure: the capital was home to the majority of Sudan’s formal financial institutions, manufacturing capacity and professional workforce, all of which have been devastated by sustained urban combat, looting and arson, setting back economic recovery by years even in the most optimistic post-conflict scenario.
Demographics and Society
Sudan is one of Africa’s most ethnically and linguistically diverse countries, with over 500 distinct ethnic groups and more than 400 languages and dialects recorded by researchers. The population is predominantly Muslim — estimates suggest over 90 percent — with the majority being Sunni. Arab-identified communities are politically and historically dominant, particularly in the Nile Valley heartland, but the country’s demographic reality is far more complex: Fur, Masalit, Zaghawa, Nuba, Beja, Dinka and dozens of other communities constitute significant populations, particularly in Darfur, Kordofan, Blue Nile and the east. Urbanisation was accelerating before the war, with Khartoum’s greater metropolitan area having grown to an estimated 7–8 million people; the conflict has violently reversed this trend, emptying the capital and driving millions back to rural areas or across borders. The defining social trend of the current moment is the collapse of the educated urban middle class: the professional, activist and civic society networks that drove the 2018–2019 revolution against Bashir have been shattered by displacement, emigration and targeted violence, representing a profound loss of social capital that will complicate any future democratic transition.
Key Issues Right Now
The civil war and atrocity crimes in Darfur. The conflict between the SAF and RSF shows no sign of resolution as of mid-2026. The RSF’s campaign in West Darfur has drawn widespread condemnation, with the United States formally declaring that genocide has been committed against the Masalit and other non-Arab communities in the region — a determination made by the US Secretary of State in early 2025. The city of El Fasher in North Darfur remains the last major urban centre in the region not under RSF control and has been under siege, with humanitarian organisations warning of famine conditions. Multiple ceasefire attempts, including processes mediated by Saudi Arabia and the United States in Jeddah, and parallel African Union and IGAD-led initiatives, have failed to produce a durable halt to hostilities. The war has created what the UN describes as the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with famine confirmed in multiple areas.
Famine and humanitarian access. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed famine conditions in parts of Sudan, the first such declaration in Africa in several years. An estimated 25 million people — more than half the population — face acute food insecurity. Humanitarian access is severely restricted by both warring parties, with aid convoys blocked, warehouses looted and aid workers killed. The UN’s humanitarian funding appeal for Sudan has been chronically underfunded relative to need, and donor fatigue is a growing concern among relief organisations. The collapse of agricultural production in the Gezira scheme — historically one of Africa’s most productive irrigated farming areas, which fell under RSF control — has been particularly devastating to food supply.
Regional and geopolitical entanglement. Sudan’s war has become a proxy theatre for competing external interests. The UAE has been widely reported — including by UN Panel of Experts reports — to be supplying the RSF with weapons and financial support, routed partly through Chad and Libya. Egypt has provided support to the SAF, reflecting Cairo’s concern about RSF dominance and its implications for Nile water security and border stability. Russia has maintained relationships with SAF-aligned actors, partly through Wagner Group successor networks, while retaining interest in a previously negotiated naval base agreement at Port Sudan on the Red Sea. These overlapping external interests have complicated mediation efforts and prolonged the conflict by ensuring both sides retain access to arms and finance.
Travel and Connectivity
Khartoum International Airport has been closed since the outbreak of fighting in April 2023 and sustained significant damage during the conflict. Port Sudan International Airport is currently the primary functioning international gateway, handling limited regional connections to Cairo, Addis Ababa, Dubai and Nairobi, among others. Juba and Asmara also serve as transit points for those entering Sudan’s periphery regions. Travel to Sudan is subject to the highest-level advisories from virtually all Western governments, and independent travel outside Port Sudan and a small number of Red Sea coastal areas is considered extremely dangerous. Tourism, which was nascent but growing before the war — centred on the Nubian archaeological sites at Meroe, Naga and Musawwarat es-Sufra — has ceased entirely. Internet penetration was estimated at around 30 percent before the war; connectivity has collapsed in conflict-affected areas due to infrastructure destruction and deliberate network shutdowns. Mobile money adoption was growing through platforms linked to Sudanese banks but has been severely disrupted by the banking sector’s near-collapse; informal hawala networks have become the dominant mechanism for remittance transfer and commercial transactions in many areas.
Further Research
Analysts, journalists and researchers seeking to deepen their understanding of Sudan should consult the following institutions and resources. The Sudan National Bureau of Statistics holds pre-war baseline data on demographics, economic activity and social indicators, though its operational capacity is currently limited. The World Bank Sudan country page provides the most regularly updated macroeconomic assessments and poverty data available in the public domain. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies (part of the US National Defense University) publishes regular briefings and maps on Sudan’s conflict dynamics, displacement patterns and regional security implications. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Sudan portal is the essential source for humanitarian situation reports, access constraints and IPC food security updates. The Sudan Studies Association, an academic network based primarily in North America, maintains connections to scholarly research on Sudanese history, politics and society. Finally, the Small Arms Survey’s Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment project, though some outputs predate the current conflict, provides foundational analysis of armed group structures, resource conflicts and community security dynamics that remain analytically relevant.





