Nigeria at a glance: Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy by nominal GDP, Nigeria in 2026 sits at a pivotal juncture — navigating sweeping macroeconomic reforms, persistent insecurity, and a demographic surge that will define the continent’s trajectory for decades.

Overview

Capital: Abuja (seat of federal government; Lagos remains the commercial capital). Population: approximately 230–235 million (UN Population Division, 2025 estimate), making Nigeria the most populous country in Africa and the sixth most populous in the world. Official language: English; principal national languages include Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo. Currency: Nigerian Naira (NGN). GDP per capita: broadly in the lower-middle-income band, estimated at roughly USD 1,600–2,000 at current exchange rates following significant naira depreciation, though purchasing-power-parity figures are considerably higher. Nigeria matters in 2026 for two compounding reasons: it is simultaneously the continent’s largest oil producer and the site of one of the world’s fastest-growing urban populations, meaning decisions made in Abuja about fiscal policy, security, and governance reverberate across West Africa and into global commodity and migration flows. Its trajectory — toward either consolidating reform gains or sliding into deeper fiscal fragility — will set a benchmark for how resource-rich African states manage the energy transition.

Government and Politics

Nigeria is a federal presidential republic, structured across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with a strong executive presidency modelled in broad outline on the United States system. The current head of state is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who assumed office on 29 May 2023 after winning the February 2023 general election under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Tinubu is a former Lagos State governor and long-time power broker in southwestern Nigerian politics. The bicameral National Assembly comprises the Senate (109 seats) and the House of Representatives (360 seats); the APC holds a working majority in both chambers, though coalition management remains a constant political exercise. The last general elections were held in February and March 2023; the next scheduled general elections — presidential, gubernatorial, and legislative — are due in February 2027, and pre-campaign positioning is already visible in factional manoeuvring within the APC and among opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party, which performed strongly in 2023 under Peter Obi. No formal constitutional amendments have been enacted since Tinubu took office, though a debate over restructuring — devolving greater fiscal and security powers to states — remains a persistent, unresolved political conversation. The Supreme Court’s 2023 post-election rulings, which upheld Tinubu’s victory against challenges from Obi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, closed the immediate legal chapter but did not fully settle questions of electoral legitimacy in the public sphere.

Economy

Nigeria’s GDP is estimated at approximately USD 360–390 billion in nominal terms for 2025 (World Bank and IMF projections), though this figure is sensitive to the naira exchange rate, which has been highly volatile since the Tinubu administration unified the official and parallel exchange rates in June 2023 — a reform that caused the naira to lose roughly 70 percent of its value against the dollar within twelve months. The primary sectors are oil and gas (still accounting for the majority of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, though a declining share of GDP), agriculture (employing the largest share of the labour force, with cocoa, sesame, and cashew among key non-oil exports), and a growing services sector anchored by telecoms, fintech, and trade. Key exports: crude petroleum, liquefied natural gas, cocoa beans, sesame seeds, and refined petroleum products. The debt position is a structural concern: the federal government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio has in recent years exceeded 90 percent, meaning that for every naira collected, almost all of it services existing obligations before any spending on infrastructure or services. The single most consequential economic story of the past 24 months is the removal of the petrol subsidy in May 2023 — a policy that had cost the state an estimated USD 10 billion annually and which Tinubu announced on his inauguration day. The removal immediately tripled pump prices, triggered a cost-of-living crisis, and pushed inflation above 30 percent by mid-2024, yet it also freed up fiscal space and drew cautious approval from the IMF and World Bank. Whether the savings are channelled into productive investment or absorbed by governance inefficiencies remains the defining economic question of the Tinubu presidency.

Demographics and Society

Nigeria’s population of roughly 230 million is young — the median age is estimated at approximately 18 years — and growing at around 2.4–2.6 percent annually, a rate that will likely see the country surpass 400 million people before 2060 on current trajectories. Urbanisation is rapid: approximately 54–56 percent of Nigerians now live in urban areas, with Lagos functioning as a megacity of 15–20 million people (estimates vary widely given the absence of a recent credible census; the last nationally accepted census was conducted in 2006). Nigeria is home to more than 250 ethnic groups; the three largest — Hausa-Fulani (predominantly in the north), Yoruba (southwest), and Igbo (southeast) — together account for roughly 60–65 percent of the population and have historically anchored the country’s political geography. Religiously, Nigeria is roughly divided between a Muslim-majority north and a Christian-majority south, with significant populations of both faiths in the Middle Belt states. One defining social trend is the acceleration of the so-called “japa” phenomenon — a Yoruba word meaning “to flee” — describing the mass emigration of educated, skilled Nigerians, particularly to the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. The scale of this brain drain, encompassing doctors, nurses, engineers, and tech workers, has become a serious policy concern, straining public health infrastructure in particular, while also generating remittance flows estimated at over USD 20 billion annually, which now exceed foreign direct investment as a source of external finance.

Key Issues Right Now

Insecurity in the North and Middle Belt. The Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin, now fragmented between the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and remnant Boko Haram factions, continues to destabilise Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, displacing millions and suppressing agricultural activity across the northeast. Simultaneously, banditry and kidnapping for ransom have become endemic across the northwest — Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi states — with mass abductions of schoolchildren recurring with alarming frequency. In the Middle Belt, farmer-herder conflicts driven by climate-induced pasture loss and competition over land have killed thousands and created localised humanitarian crises in Plateau, Benue, and Kaduna states. The military has intensified operations, including airstrikes, but critics argue that kinetic responses without addressing underlying governance deficits and climate pressures are insufficient.

Cost-of-living crisis and social pressure. The combination of subsidy removal, naira depreciation, and global food price pressures has produced a cost-of-living emergency that is politically and socially combustible. Inflation, which reached multi-decade highs above 30 percent in 2024, has eroded real wages and pushed millions deeper into poverty; the World Bank estimated in 2024 that Nigeria’s poverty headcount had risen to over 100 million people living below USD 2.15 per day. In August 2024, nationwide protests — the largest since the 2020 #EndSARS demonstrations — erupted under the banner of “End Bad Governance,” reflecting widespread frustration with economic hardship, insecurity, and perceived elite impunity. The government’s response, which included the deployment of security forces and the arrest of some protest organisers, drew criticism from civil society and international human rights organisations.

The Dangote Refinery and the energy transition. The commissioning of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos — with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, potentially the largest single-train refinery in the world — represents a structural shift in Nigeria’s downstream energy sector. If it operates at or near capacity, it could end Nigeria’s paradoxical dependence on imported refined petroleum products despite being a major crude exporter, reshape regional fuel trade across West Africa, and alter the government’s foreign exchange dynamics. Early operations have been complicated by crude supply disputes between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), illustrating how vested interests in the existing import trade create friction for transformative investment. The refinery’s trajectory is one of the most closely watched industrial stories on the continent.

Travel and Connectivity

Nigeria’s principal international gateway is Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos (IATA: LOS), which handles the majority of international passenger and cargo traffic; Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja (ABV) serves as the second major hub and the primary entry point for government and diplomatic travel. Other international airports of note include those in Kano, Port Harcourt, and Enugu. Principal cities beyond Lagos and Abuja include Kano (the commercial capital of the north), Port Harcourt (the centre of the oil industry in the Niger Delta), Ibadan, Benin City, and Enugu. Tourism remains underdeveloped relative to Nigeria’s cultural and natural assets — the country receives a fraction of the visitors that comparable economies attract — though cultural tourism anchored by music (Afrobeats has given Nigeria extraordinary global soft power), film (Nollywood is the world’s second-largest film industry by volume), and heritage sites is a growing segment. The e-visa system has improved access for some nationalities, but visa processing inconsistency and airport infrastructure quality remain deterrents. Internet penetration stands at approximately 55–60 percent of the population, with mobile internet the dominant mode of access. Nigeria is a global leader in mobile money and fintech adoption: platforms such as OPay, Moniepoint, PalmPay, and the established Interswitch ecosystem process hundreds of millions of transactions monthly, and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s eNaira — a central bank digital currency launched in 2021 — has seen limited but growing uptake.

Further Research

Analysts, journalists, and investors seeking to deepen their understanding of Nigeria should consult the following institutions and resources. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Nigeria publishes quarterly GDP estimates, inflation data, labour force surveys, and trade statistics, and is the authoritative source for domestic economic data. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) provides monetary policy statements, financial stability reports, and balance-of-payments data essential for understanding the currency and banking environment. The World Bank Nigeria country page offers poverty assessments, project documentation, and the Nigeria Development Update — a biannual report that provides rigorous independent analysis of the macroeconomic situation. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies (a US Department of Defense academic institution) publishes regular security-focused briefings on the Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency, Sahel spillover dynamics, and civil-military relations. The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) is a leading private-sector think tank that produces policy-oriented research on economic reform, investment climate, and social development. Finally, the SBM Intelligence firm, based in Lagos, offers granular political risk analysis and polling data grounded in on-the-ground Nigerian expertise, and is widely cited by regional correspondents and institutional investors.